The Russian air force (the VKS, Vozdushno-Kosmicheskiye Sily) is on the retreat. In recent weeks, it has pulled many of its warplanes from bases near Ukraine and redeployed them to bases farther from the border.
The retrograde move follows a similar retreat by the Russian navy’s Black Sea Fleet, which departed its most vulnerable harbours in occupied Ukraine this spring and reestablished operations at safer ports in southern Russia.
The aerial retreat is reactive. More and better Ukrainian drones have been striking farther and more frequently inside Russia in recent months, damaging warplanes and airfield infrastructure. By reducing assets at the bases nearest Ukraine, the Russians might minimize the damage from these raids.
It’s also proactive. For more than a year since acquiring the first long-range missiles from their foreign allies, Ukrainian officials have been pleading for permission to use those missiles against Russian bases on Russian soil.
The permission hasn’t yet come. But the Russians clearly believe itmightcome.
“Russia is now acting more pre-emptively rather than reactively, unlike in the past,” Ukrainian analysis group Frontelligence Insightexplained.
Recently scouring commercial satellite imagery, Frontelligence Insight’s analysts have tracked big Russian redeployments – including the relocation of Russian air force fighter-bombers from border airfields. Most notably: Voronezh Malshevo air base, in southern Russia 130 miles from Ukraine.
As recently as late June, there were dozens of Sukhoi Su-34 fighter-bombers at the base. They flew daily sorties lobbing powerful glide bombs – scores per day – at Ukrainian troops and civilians.
“It takes only minutes for a [Sukhoi] jet to reach the launch area near the border and then return to the base,” Frontelligence Insightreported in June. “The large number of jets stationed at the airfield enables the simultaneous deployment of bombs, allowing multiple targets in Ukrainian territory to be engaged at once.”
Often parked out in the open on the tarmac at Voronezh Malshevo, the Sukhois were well within range of Ukraine’s best deep strike weapons – its American-made Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) rockets.
“Ukraine could potentially incapacitate the entire operational fleet stationed there if permitted to conduct such a strike,” Frontelligence Insight noted.
But that permission hasn’t come. And now the Sukhois have departed for safer bases beyond the 190-mile reach of the ATACMS. Ukraine’s Franco-British SCALP/Storm Shadow cruise missiles possess similar range.
Even if Ukraine’s allies give the nod for strikes on Russian bases, it’s too late for many of the most valuable targets. They’re increasingly empty of the jets the Ukrainians are so desperate to destroy.
That’s not to say Ukraine is powerless to hit the more distant Russian airfields. Using a growing arsenal of locally-made drones, the Ukrainian intelligence directorate has been stepping up its raids on facilities deep inside Russia.
Airfields have been the main targets. On July 27, the intelligence directorate reportedly flew an explosives-laden drone a staggering 1,100 miles to strike Olenya air base in northern Russia. Tupolev Tu-22M3 bombers flying from the base frequently fire cruise missiles at Ukrainian cities.
It’s important to remember that Russian warplanes’ range isn’t unlimited. They can redeploy only so far into the Russian interior and fringes before they become less useful for raids on Ukraine. Even after retreating as far as they realistically can, most Russian warplanes will be within range of that 1,100-mile Ukrainian strike drone.
But operating at the edges of their own effective range, these drones are – at their current pace of just a handful of raids per month – more of a nuisance than they are an existential threat to the bases they strike.
If the Ukrainians massively expanded production of their best strike drones, they might be able to inflict meaningful damage on the faraway bases. But the Russians might anticipate that development, too – and take additional proactive measures. The Russians “are paying more attention to deliveries and weapon capabilities,” Frontelligence Insight noted.
The Russians can’t position jets more than a thousand miles from Ukraine without significantly reducing those jets’ effectiveness. But they could borrow a tactic from the US Air Force and scatter the jets across more and smaller airfields, counting on that dispersal to thin out the destructive potential of Ukraine’s drones.
The distance isn’t the main problem for Ukraine’s strike planning. The main problem is that Russia is finally anticipating the main threats to its own strike assets – and taking proactive measures to protect them.
It’s “yet another difficult and complex challenge that Ukrainian command and leadership have to deal with,” Frontelligence Insight stated.
